Green Mountain Politics Racing Form

2006 Green Mountain Politics Racing Form

Date of Post: Oct. 9, 2005

Governor

Candidate: Jim Douglas (R-Incumbent)

Odds: 1- 5

Candidate: Scudder Parker (D)

Odds: 100 - 1

Comments: Parker is less well-known than Burlington Mayor Peter Clavelle, who lost big to the affable Douglas in 2004. Douglas has successfully negotiated the "Global Commitment" Medicaid funding package and will likely stave off a Democratic health plan initiative. On the down side, Douglas' support of VELCO will probably cost him some green votes. Still, barring a monumental scandal, Douglas is poised to easily win reelection.

Lieutenant Governor

Candidate: None yet.

Comments: Progressive Anthony Pollina appears ready to try to screw up the election for the Democrats once again, for whatever reasons. His share of the vote total will diminish, however, and the Democrats may be able to withstand Pollina's presence this time around.

If incumbent Republican Brian Dubie runs for the U.S. Senate, G.O.P. replacements may include State Senators Diane Snelling, Mark Shepard and Phil Scott. Other interested parties? How about State Auditor Randy Brock? Democratic candidates may include State Senators Mark MacDonald, John Campbell and biennial candidate Ed Flanagan. Secretary of State Deb Markowitz may take a long look at the race.

U.S. Senate

Candidate: Bernie Sanders (I)

Odds: 1-2

Candidate: Rich Tarrant (R)

Odds: 200 - 1

Candidate: Brian Dubie (R)

Odds: 20 - 1

Comments: Longtime Congressman Bernie Sanders is itching to take on "Richie Rich" Tarrant in the general election. The former IDX owner/billionaire would be the perfect foil for Bernie's style of class warfare. It's more likely, however, that Tarrant will lose to Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie in the Republican primary. Dubie will prove to be a stronger-than-expected opponent for Sanders. The friendly homespun Dubie will see his poll numbers slowly rise, giving his campaign a sense of momentum. Nonetheless, he will not have enough momentum to deny Bernie a seat in the U.S. Senate.

U.S. House

Candidate: Peter Welch (D)

Odds: 2-1

Candidate: Zephyr Teachout (D)

Odds: 5000 -1

Candidate: Martha Rainville (R)

Odds: 2-1

Candidate: David Zuckerman (P)

Odds: 5000-1

Candidate: Peter Diamondstone (LU)

Odds: 650,000 - 1

Comments: State Senate President Peter Welch was helped by former State Senator Peter Shumlin's decision to opt out of the House race. Welch will need to muster all the support he can to fend off Adjutant General Martha Rainville, who will get a lot of financial backing in the race. Rainville is untested on the campaign trail, but will appear to gain momentum as her low recognition numbers go up. Zuckerman, if he runs, would be a great help to Rainville. Welch, however, may have the experience and natural political talent to beat them both.